RE: April Unemployment Rate; CtR Trading Log
The April unemployment rate trade goes into the log as a winner.
Welcome to this 5/8/26 edition of CtR.
I’m Rubi, a chartist and event contracts trader.
This is an update to a previous post regarding a trade.
This was sent on 4/25/26; it is required before proceeding.
The April Unemployment Print Is Mispriced
Labor's not hurting as bad as the zeitgeist would have you believe.
In that post, my co-author, Jack Bowman, and I discuss the data behind my conviction in this trade, as well as model the trade we took in that market.
Jack does not work on the trade logs — you can see his commentary on the jobs report here on his column.
The May 8th settlement came and the market resolved.
The unemployment rate registered at 4.3%, with a higher-than-expected job gain and lower-than-expected negative revision.
This was anticipated by my model, the Rubicon Pain Index, as well as the alternative data sources I monitor.
Here is the market for reference:
Here is what I wrote in that post regarding the odds:
Prediction: The market resolves to 4.3% or 4.2%.
Odds: We assign a 65% chance to 4.3%, a 30% chance to 4.2%, a 4% chance to 4.4%, and a 1% chance to 4.1% or 4.5%.
THE TRADE — $100 Deployed Across A Spread
Scale as necessary for your account size & risk tolerance.
THE OUTCOME — May 8th Settlement
Scale as necessary for your account size & risk tolerance.
The trade resolved as a winner, registering a 24% gain.
Congratulations to fellow winners.
Personal Commentary:
This one felt easy.
I’m told by those whose shoulders I stand on that the first one always feels this way.
Jack said to me, “Beginner’s luck.”
I am taking these things to heart. As was the plan, trades will always come when I and the data are both certain.
I look forward to sending the next one.
The Record:
This was trade #1.
Won Trades: 1
Lost Trades: 0
Win Rate: 100%
Value of initial “$100”: $124
Good luck out there.